Lt. Col. Daniel. L. Davis: Deep Dive
Interview with Professor J Mearsheimer of Chicago University
DISMANTLING IRAN
16/01/2026
An Analysis of a High‑Profile Academic Interview:
The Collapse of Key Assertions Under Minimal Scrutiny
Hassan Mansoor
Professor of Economics
In the wake of what numerous observers have described as mass atrocities committed by the Islamic authorities in Iran, early reports indicated that approximately 16,500 peaceful demonstrators were killed, more than 330,000 injured, and between 8,000 and 10,000 sustained severe ocular injuries, alongside tens of thousands of arrests (Sunday Times, 17–۱۸ January). Subsequent assessments by the International Human Rights Report (ICHR, 20 January 2026) placed the estimated death toll at over 43,000, with more than 10,000 individuals blinded and more than 350,000 injured. Additional field-based clinical documentation by Iranian physicians corroborated the exceptionally high casualty figures (Medical Reports Based on Direct Clinical Observations).
The protests began in late December 2025 in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, initially triggered by acute economic hardship, and rapidly expanded into nationwide anti-government demonstrations across dozens of cities. By early January 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Basij militia, and plain-clothes security agents launched a coordinated and lethal crackdown. According to multiple human rights sources, security forces employed military-grade weaponry, drones, and other instruments of force, resulting in mass casualties, widespread maiming, and severe injuries. Reports also documented systematic patterns of torture, sexual violence, and other grave abuses. A recurring tactic involved the deliberate targeting of protesters’ eyes, echoing patterns observed in earlier protest cycles and leaving hundreds with permanent blindness as a method of intimidation and incapacitation.
A nationwide internet shutdown and extensive information controls were imposed, severely restricting communication and obstructing independent verification of killings, arrests, and disappearances. State media simultaneously announced large-scale arrests, labelling protesters as “terrorists” or foreign-backed agitators. Foreign journalists faced stringent restrictions, while domestic reporters were subjected to intimidation, detention, or enforced silence.
The scale and severity of the reported abuses generated widespread international alarm. The International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) and multiple human rights organisations characterised the events as constituting crimes against humanity, citing mass killing, torture, and incommunicado detention. These assessments placed the situation within the purview of United Nations mechanisms, potential universal jurisdiction in certain states, and possible referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC), notwithstanding Iran’s non-membership. Amnesty International subsequently urged UN member states to:
Initiate global diplomatic action; and
Address systematic impunity in Iran:
The UK parliament’s House of Commons reported:
Preparation of new sanctions targeting Iranian officials
Condemning of the violent crackdown
Monitoring of the situation despite limited access due to the internet shutdown
The United States announced:
Public threats of intervention (political, not military)
Likely expansion of Magnitsky-style sanctions
The European Union responded with Human-rights sanctions
Asset freezes and travel-bans and
Support for UN investigative mechanisms
A majority among the Iranian Opposition cried out for invocation of the Security Council Approved R2P (Right to protect).
At the heyday of this massacre no less a personality than the well-known “Theoretician of International Relations”, Professor John Mearsheimer of Chicago University, appeared to produce an interview with Daniel Davies under the title of Dismantling Iran.
What did the Professor disclose? I shall try to paraphrase, remaining faithful to his core message:
He spoke of a four-part strategy developed by the United States to dismantle IRAN (and NOT the Islamic Republic of Iran)!;
PART One: The United States wrecked country’s economy through sanctions to make “The body Populace of the country unhappy”;
Part two. The United States fomented a massive protest and fuelled it. This happened in late December 2025 where Mossad and USA were involved;
The United States supplied the populace in Iran with 40,000 Star Links to counter the Internet blackout by the government;
Part Three: The United States fomented a massive misinformation campaign to convince everybody in the West that these protestors were generated internally and were NOBEL PATRIOTS;
Part Four. Then would the US military and probably Israel’s military come in and attack infra-structures and elite in IRAN and give them a coup de grace (Blow of Mercy) and finish off the regime.
But this strategy failed, professor announced “joyfully”:
- The number of protests were reduced drastically;
- The government crackdown has succeeded.
What will happen then, predicted the Professor, in an enthusiastic tone:
The government will completely shut the protests down and hang numbers of those protestors.
Now if the US intervenes, Iran will retaliate!
They will shut down the Strait of Hormuz/ Pound Israel with missiles
But If IRAN was pound, the populace will rally around the government!
At this point, the Professor of International Relations, lectures on ISRAEL being THE EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO IRAN and the plan of the US to wreck Iran, topple the regime and then break the country apart just as she did in Syria!
Thus, he utters: The United States are ATTACK TEAM with Israel
Then he turns to lectures on the history of animosity Between Iran and Israel:
It was Isreal in early 1990s who put their gun-site against IRAN. The idea that
Iranians are committed to wiping Israelis out of the map is not supported by
available evidence;
If you go diplomatic way… you could create decent relations between ISRAEL AND IRAN, and US and Iran, witness: THEY HAVE HAD DECENT RELATIONS BETWEEN THOSE TWO COUNTRIES IN THE PAST!
Finally come the ROGNOSES and an ADVICE to the ISLAMIST Authorities in Iran:
I Think we will be in similar situation five years from now but the regime will be in place in 5 years/I don’t see much change in the situation/IRAN is not going away, as Hezbollah and Hamas did not.
IF I WERE IRANIAN, THEY WOULD HAVE CREATED NUCLEAR WEAPON A LONG TIME AGO!
I would like to humbly draw Professor Mearsheimer’s attention to a number of empirically documented indicators that contextualise the current national uprising in Iran:
Comparative GDP Performance: In 1979, when the Islamist government assumed power, Iran’s GDP was approximately 40% higher than that of both Turkey and South Korea. Today, Turkey’s GDP is roughly three times larger than Iran’s, and South Korea’s is six to seven times larger.
Long‑Term Economic Stagnation: Over the past 47 years, Iran’s real GDP (in constant prices) has grown by less than a factor of three—barely keeping pace with population growth. By contrast, nominal GDP has expanded more than 50,000‑fold, largely due to monetary expansion. This has produced cumulative price increases exceeding 20,000‑fold, while average wages have risen far less, resulting in a substantial decline in real per‑capita income.
Poverty Rates: Official statistics indicate that approximately 70% of the population lives at or below the poverty line, with roughly half of this group falling below the absolute poverty line.
Currency Collapse: The national currency has experienced a dramatic depreciation, falling from 70 rials per US dollar in 1979 to over 1,500,000 rials per dollar today.
State Dominance of the Economy: The government controls an estimated 80% of the national economy, severely constraining the development of a competitive private sector.
Lack of Fiscal Transparency: Approximately 60% of the general budget is exempt from parliamentary oversight, despite the parliament itself being largely composed of vetted and approved candidates.
Unaccounted Foreign Exchange Revenues: Between 2000 and 2020, an estimated USD 500 billion in foreign‑exchange earnings is unaccounted for in national financial statements.
Rising Social Pathologies: Official data show sharp increases in various categories of crime and family breakdown.
Field reports suggest a disturbing downward trend, with the age of children subjected to sexual exploitation now estimated at approximately 10-11 years;
Officially confirmed capital flight in a decade amounted to USD 170 billion while the number of educated youth and entrepreneurs leaving the country amounted to 180,000 per annum with a cost to the country of at least USD 50 Billion reported by the World Bank;
Statistical Unreliability: Many official statistics and indices have become widely regarded as unreliable or politically manipulated.
Declining Global Economic Rank: Iran ranked 18th globally in GDP in 1977. By 2024, it had fallen to 41st when calculated using the administrative exchange rate, and to 80th when calculated using the market rate.
Youth Unemployment: Youth unemployment—particularly among university graduates—has consistently remained between 30% and 40%.
Delayed Labour‑Market Entry: Millions of Iranians in their forties have never held their first formal job.
Prison Overcrowding: The prison population stands at approximately 189,000 inmates across 253 facilities, corresponding to an incarceration rate of 228 per 100,000 people and an overcrowding rate of 153%.
Expansion of the Clerical Establishment: The number of clerics is estimated at 200,000 – 400,000 with average per‑capita expenditures exceeding those of high‑school teachers. The number of seminaries has surpassed 1,120, with budgets exceeding those allocated to universities.
Corruption Indicators: In 2024, Iran scored 23/100 on the Corruption Perceptions Index, ranking 151st out of 180 countries.
Business Environment: In the final edition of the World Bank’s Doing Business index (2020), Iran ranked 127th out of 190 countries.
Execution Rates: Iran has for many years held the highest per‑capita execution rate in the world.
Freedom Indices: In the 2025 World Freedom Index, Iran ranked 168th globally and 18th in the Middle East, categorised among the least free countries in the world.
Environmental indices depict a catastrophic picture with Soil, Water and AIR having been irreversibly degraded;
These indicators could, on their own, sufficiently explain widespread public discontent. Nevertheless, Professor Mearsheimer attributes the uprising primarily to alleged “conspiracies” by Israel and the United States. He further asserts that these states seek to “destroy Iran”—rather than the Islamic Republic. This interpretation appears inconsistent with the observable pattern of the 2023 Israeli‑US military response, which targeted the Islamic Republic’s military infrastructure and nuclear facilities while largely sparing civilian and industrial infrastructure, even at moments when Iranian airspace was effectively under their control.
I would respectfully invite Professor Mearsheimer to examine the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, the public statements of its founder dating back to 1963, and the repeated declarations of its current leadership. These sources clearly articulate the regime’s ideological commitment to the elimination of Israel—an objective that has been central to its identity since it overthrew a government that had previously maintained cooperative relations with Israel.
Finally, the professor’s assertion that external pressure on the Islamic Republic of Iran – as distinct from the land and nation of IRAN- would galvanize popular support for the state is, in my view, fundamentally flawed and demands serious reconsideration.
I have reason to question whether our professor’s position has become unduly aligned with the interests of the founder of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), an organisation widely criticised for its proximity to the Islamic Republic’s lobbying efforts. The dynamic evokes, in a metaphorical sense, the Faustian bargain in Goethe’s Faust, wherein Dr. Faustus surrenders his intellectual independence to Mephistopheles, to his own detriment.
Hassan Mansoor, Ph.D. Economics
Retired Professor of Economics
January 2026